The market will certainly take note of any outliers. However, the main issue is that expectations for rate cuts are overly optimistic. Futures are currently pricing in a 40% chance of a 50 basis point cut in November, which I believe is neither necessary nor realistic,” says Mark Matthews of Julius Baer.
Since the Fed’s rate cut, the global situation has stabilized; financial markets are doing well, crude prices are recovering, and yields are looking more settled.
Since the Fed’s rate cut, the world has stabilized; financial markets are performing well, crude prices are rebounding, and yields appear to be more settled. From a market perspective, do you think the Fed event is behind us now? Is it time to focus on the next data point, such as the U.S. jobs report or something else?
The market will certainly keep an eye on any outliers. However, I believe the main issue is that expectations for rate cuts are too high. Currently, futures are pricing in a 40% chance of a 50 basis point cut in November, which I don’t think is either necessary or realistic.
As a result, the potential for disappointment seems greater than the likelihood of a positive surprise, in my view. Additionally, experts are increasingly suggesting that Kamala Harris will win the election in November.